Certain Market, Model, and Structural Risks

RISK DISCLOSURE

Last Updated: 05/18/2026

This Risk Disclosure applies to all Materials published or distributed by Market Math and should be read together with the Terms. Capitalized terms not otherwise defined herein shall have the meanings assigned in the Terms.

The Materials concern financial markets, derivatives, volatility conditions, market structure, quantitative finance, probabilistic frameworks, statistical methodologies, digital assets, and related analytical subjects involving substantial uncertainty, complexity, and financial risk.

Financial markets are inherently dynamic, adaptive, reflexive, competitive, and structurally unstable systems influenced by evolving participant behavior, leverage, liquidity conditions, technological developments, macroeconomic events, monetary-policy developments, regulatory changes, geopolitical events, behavioral responses, market structure evolution, and changing correlations among market participants and financial instruments.

Accordingly, market behavior may change rapidly, discontinuously, irrationally, or without warning, including in ways inconsistent with prior observations, historical relationships, internally derived classifications, probabilistic expectations, or model-generated interpretations.

The following disclosures are intended to provide additional context concerning the uncertainties, limitations, and structural risks inherent in financial markets, probabilistic frameworks, volatility conditions, quantitative methodologies, and market commentary discussed in the Materials.

1. GENERAL MARKET RISK

Trading and investing in financial markets involves substantial risk and may result in partial or total loss of capital.

The Materials may discuss securities, futures, options, swaps, leveraged instruments, foreign exchange products, volatility products, structured products, digital assets, derivatives, indexes, spreads, rates, statistical frameworks, market structure conditions, or other financial instruments and market conditions involving substantial financial risk.

Financial markets may experience:

(1) rapid repricing events; (2) extreme volatility; (3) liquidity deterioration; (4) widening bid-ask spreads; (5) correlation instability; (6) exchange outages; (7) market fragmentation; (8) clearing disruptions; (9) forced liquidation events; (10) margin increases; (11) trading halts; (12) overnight gaps; (13) technological disruptions; (14) disorderly auction behavior; (15) macroeconomic shocks; (16) geopolitical events; (17) regulatory intervention; (18) exchange rule changes; and (19) discontinuous or irrational market behavior.

Certain financial instruments and strategies discussed in the Materials may involve leverage, illiquidity, non-linear pricing behavior, accelerated volatility expansion, or theoretically unlimited losses.

Leverage may materially magnify gains and losses and may result in rapid capital impairment, forced liquidation, margin calls, or losses materially exceeding initial capital committed.

Actual execution conditions may differ materially from theoretical observations, generalized commentary, probabilistic frameworks, historical analogues, structural classifications, or hypothetical examples discussed in the Materials due to liquidity constraints, execution limitations, volatility expansion, latency, market impact, slippage, changing spreads, technological limitations, or rapidly evolving market conditions.

2. QUANTITATIVE FRAMEWORK AND MODEL RISK

The Materials may reference internally derived quantitative frameworks, probabilistic methodologies, structural classifications, volatility analyses, statistical observations, participation dynamics, historical analogues, regime characterizations, market-state observations, dispersion frameworks, auction analyses, model-generated interpretations, or other internally derived analytical methodologies.

All quantitative frameworks and probabilistic methodologies involve substantial limitations and inherent uncertainty.

Quantitative models may fail due to, among other things:

(1) incorrect assumptions; (2) incomplete or inaccurate data; (3) parameter instability; (4) model drift; (5) overfitting; (6) omitted-variable bias; (7) survivorship bias; (8) changing market regimes; (9) changing participant behavior; (10) changing liquidity conditions; (11) volatility regime shifts; (12) changing correlations; (13) execution constraints; (14) technological failures; (15) nonstationarity; (16) structural market evolution; (17) macroeconomic discontinuities; (18) regulatory developments; (19) latency; (20) market fragmentation; (21) behavioral responses; (22) liquidity distortions; or (23) unforeseen market events.

Financial markets are adaptive systems subject to evolving participant behavior, technological change, liquidity migration, regulatory developments, changing market incentives, and structural evolution.

Broad adoption of similar analytical methodologies, positioning frameworks, structural interpretations, volatility frameworks, quantitative signals, or market-structure observations may alter market behavior and reduce the reliability, persistence, applicability, or usefulness of historical relationships or internally derived observations.

The existence of any internally derived model state, structural classification, volatility condition, probabilistic framework, historical analogue, market characterization, or statistical observation does not imply that any corresponding market behavior is more likely than any alternative outcome.

No representation is made that any model, framework, classification, structural observation, statistical tendency, probabilistic methodology, or analytical process is predictive, accurate, complete, reliable, stable, or suitable for any particular purpose.

Historical observations, statistical tendencies, probabilistic relationships, structural analogues, and internally derived classifications may fail, reverse, break down, or become irrelevant under changing market conditions.

3. HISTORICAL, PROBABILISTIC, AND STATISTICAL LIMITATIONS

The Materials may reference historical observations, historical analogues, prior market conditions, statistical relationships, probabilistic tendencies, structural similarities, volatility observations, or internally observed market configurations.

Historical observations and statistical relationships are inherently conditional and may not persist.

Financial markets are influenced by evolving participant behavior, changing liquidity conditions, macroeconomic developments, regulation, technological evolution, leverage conditions, monetary policy, geopolitical events, behavioral responses, and changing structural incentives.

Accordingly:

(1) prior market behavior may not repeat; (2) statistical tendencies may fail; (3) historical relationships may break down; (4) historical analogues may become irrelevant; (5) probabilistic observations may prove inaccurate; (6) internally observed structural similarities may not correspond to future market behavior; and (7) opposing or unrelated market behavior may occur regardless of prior observations or internally derived classifications.

Any discussion of conditions historically associated with certain market behavior is descriptive and observational in nature and does not imply continuation, recurrence, predictive reliability, or future manifestation.

4. HISTORICAL, PROBABILISTIC, AND STATISTICAL LIMITATIONS

The Materials may contain hypothetical examples, model-generated observations, structural illustrations, simulations, probabilistic scenarios, generalized analytical frameworks, historical analogues, or conceptual discussions.

Hypothetical and simulated analyses have substantial inherent limitations.

Unlike actual trading records, hypothetical or simulated analyses do not represent real trading activity and may not account for:

(1) liquidity limitations; (2) slippage; (3) execution quality; (4) transaction costs; (5) financing costs; (6) changing spreads; (7) latency; (8) volatility expansion; (9) exchange outages; (10) market impact; (11) changing market structure; (12) technological failures; (13) behavioral responses; (14) operational limitations; (15) psychological factors affecting trading decisions; or (16) other factors affecting actual market activity.

Certain analyses may be prepared with the benefit of hindsight.

No representation is made that any account, framework, methodology, participant, or approach would achieve results similar to any hypothetical, simulated, probabilistic, structural, or historical discussion contained in the Materials.

Past performance, whether actual, hypothetical, simulated, model-generated, or backtested, is not indicative of future results.

5. VOLATILITY, LIQUIDITY, AND DISLOCATION RISK

The Materials may discuss conditions involving volatility expansion, repricing activity, directional persistence, rotational instability, auction imbalance, liquidity fragmentation, dispersion characteristics, dislocation conditions, stressed participation dynamics, or other structurally unstable market behavior.

Such conditions may involve elevated market risk and may produce:

(1) rapid directional migration; (2) unstable execution conditions; (3) widening spreads; (4) disorderly market behavior; (5) heightened volatility persistence; (6) forced liquidation events; (7) substantial losses; (8) liquidity deterioration; (9) accelerated repricing behavior; (10) fragmented auction conditions; and (11) impaired market depth.

Periods of elevated volatility or structural instability may materially impair execution quality, increase transaction costs, reduce liquidity availability, and increase the probability of abrupt market movements.

Structural conditions described in the Materials may change rapidly and without notice.

6. DIGITAL ASSET AND CRYPTOCURRENCY RISK

The Materials may reference digital assets, cryptocurrencies, blockchain-related technologies, tokenized instruments, decentralized finance protocols, or related markets.

Digital asset markets involve substantial additional risks, including:

(1) extreme volatility; (2) cybersecurity failures; (3) smart-contract vulnerabilities; (4) protocol failures; (5) forks; (6) technological disruptions; (7) custody failures; (8) exchange insolvency; (9) liquidity fragmentation; (10) fraud; (11) manipulation; (12) operational failures; (13) regulatory uncertainty; (14) enforcement actions; and (15) rapid market dislocation.

Digital asset markets may be materially less regulated, less transparent, more fragmented, and more susceptible to operational disruption and market manipulation than traditional financial markets.

7. DATA, INFORMATION, AND TECHNOLOGICAL RISK

The Materials may rely upon market data, exchange feeds, statistical inputs, pricing services, charts, third-party information, analytical tools, software systems, news sources, external research, or other informational inputs.

Such information and systems may be delayed, incomplete, inaccurate, interrupted, revised, unavailable, corrupted, or subject to technological or operational failure.

Errors, omissions, delays, interruptions, or inaccuracies in informational inputs or technological systems may materially affect model outputs, classifications, observations, analyses, or structural characterizations.

Market Math does not independently verify all external data and makes no representation regarding the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, or reliability of third-party information or data sources.

8. TIME SENSITIVITY AND SESSION-SPECIFIC LIMITATIONS

The Materials are time-sensitive and reflect market conditions, internal calculations, model inputs, classifications, and structural observations solely as of the stated publication time.

The Materials reflect session-specific characterizations derived from contemporaneous market observations and evolving market conditions.

Such conditions, classifications, observations, frameworks, and characterizations may change rapidly and without notice and may become stale, incomplete, inaccurate, or inapplicable as market conditions evolve.

Unless expressly stated otherwise, the Materials are intended solely for the referenced trading session and should not be interpreted as applicable beyond the close of the regular New York trading session occurring on the stated publication date.

Subsequent market developments, including overnight activity, macroeconomic developments, liquidity changes, volatility expansion, geopolitical events, technological disruptions, or structural shifts, may materially alter the relevance or applicability of any discussion contained in the Materials.

Market Math undertakes no obligation to update, revise, reaffirm, invalidate, supplement, or otherwise modify any Materials following publication or following changes in market conditions or the passage of time.

9. CONFLICTS, POSITIONAL EXPOSURE, AND MARKET PARTICIPATION RISK

The Author, Market Math, and their affiliates, principals, contributors, contractors, or related persons may hold positions in, trade, accumulate, dispose of, hedge, or otherwise have economic exposure to instruments, markets, derivatives, digital assets, or financial products referenced in the Materials, including before, during, or after publication.

Such persons may take positions inconsistent with any structural characterization, market observation, probabilistic framework, historical analogue, or discussion contained in the Materials.

Market Math does not undertake to align publication timing, market commentary, analytical observations, or model characterizations with any trading activity or economic exposure.

Market conditions, liquidity conditions, execution constraints, or evolving risk-management considerations may materially affect trading activity or positioning independently of any Materials published by Market Math.

10. NO GUARANTEE

No representation, warranty, covenant, assurance, or guarantee is made regarding:

(1) future market behavior; (2) market direction; (3) profitability; (4) investment performance; (5) trading success; (6) predictive accuracy; (7) statistical reliability; (8) informational completeness; (9) model effectiveness; or (10) suitability for any particular purpose.

Different, opposing, discontinuous, irrational, or unrelated market behavior may occur at any time regardless of any model characterization, probabilistic framework, historical observation, volatility condition, structural classification, or market discussion contained in the Materials.

Subscribers acknowledge that financial markets involve substantial uncertainty and risk and that all use, interpretation, or reliance upon the Materials is undertaken solely at the Subscriber’s own risk.