ESU2025 Daily Assumptions|[07/02/2025]
07/02/2025
ESU2025 (SP500 Futures March Expiry, Daily time series):
Up .46 percent or 115 ticks
Bullish Congestion with a market bottom, can trend up
Yesterday’s sell signal performed well until the New York open, when the 8:30 AM data releases triggered a market bottom, leading to a recovery and new highs. Regardless, the models continue to indicate that upside remains fairly limited, and staying defensive when the signals appear should continue to generate outsized risk-adjusted returns.
With all of this heavy data and event flow tomorrow:
3-Month Bill Settlement
6-Month Bill Settlement
6-Week Bill Settlement
Employment Situation, 8:30 AM ET
International Trade in Goods and Services, 8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims, 8:30 AM ET
PMI Composite Final, 9:45 AM ET
Factory Orders, 10:00 AM ET
ISM Services Index, 10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction, 10:00 AM ET
8-Week Bill Auction, 10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report, 10:30 AM ET
Raphael Bostic Speaks, 11:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Announcement, 11:00 AM ET
6-Week Bill Announcement, 11:00 AM ET
6-Month Bill Announcement, 11:00 AM ET
52-Week Bill Announcement, 11:00 AM ET
3-Year Note Announcement, 11:00 AM ET
10-Year Note Announcement, 11:00 AM ET
30-Year Bond Announcement, 11:00 AM ET
NYSE Early Close, 1:00 PM ET
Baker Hughes Rig Count, 1:00 PM ET
SIFMA Early Close, 2:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet, 4:30 PM ET
Combined with an early close ahead of the long holiday weekend, the models are pointing to a trend day higher.
Have a fantastic Fourth of July and a great holiday weekend.
Resistance levels for the day:
R5: 6383.25; Tail move III.
R4: 6348.00; Tail move II.
R3: 6337.25; Tail move I.
R2: 6300.25; Seth Estimated max daily upside.
R1: 6289.50; Sell area I. Should hold, Model estimated max daily upside.
S1: 6273.50; Holding overnight.
S2: 6269.75; Model max daily downside.
S3: 6264.75; Tail move I.
S4: 6257.50; Tail move II.
S5: 6246.75; Tail move III.
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