ESM2025 Daily and Weekly Assumptions | [04/20/2025]
04/20/2025
ESH2025 (SP500 futures March Expiry, Weekly time series):
Down 1.28 Percent or 277 Ticks
Bearish Trend with a market top
The market remains in a week-over-week downtrend and has topped out, forecasting more selling this week back toward the lows.
While the recent bounce was strong, the models are now indicating that new lows are becoming increasingly possible.
The rally continues to appear as a selling opportunity, with momentum showing the potential to persist and drive the market to fresh local lows for the year.
Please note that I am releasing this for all subscribers for this edition.
The levels for the week are:
R5: 5681.00; Tail move II.
R4: 5588.75; Tail upside move I.
R3: 5498.75; Improbable.
R2: 5398.00; Probably max weekly upside.
R1: 5305.75; Holding in overnight, we opened here and started to sell off.
S1: 5207.75-178.25; Market can break this.
S2: 5107.00; Can break this level.
S3: 5049.50; Estimated max weekly downside.
S4: 4958.75; Can break.
S5: 4859.75-832.00; Back at the lows. Max weekly downside.
ESH2025 (SP500 Futures March Expiry, Daily time series):
Up .51 Percent or 108 Ticks
Bearish Congestion with a market top
This time series remains broadly in a downtrend with strong downside momentum.
The market is holding in a range near some local lows while still about 1700 ticks off the absolute lows.
The market has the potential to begin trending down again and revisit those lows this week and possibly as early as tomorrow.
Models and research indicate that mean reversion appears to be fading, and the market should resume its downward trend in the days ahead.
Resistance levels for the day:
R5: 5407.75; Tail upside move III.
R4: 5373.50 ; Tail move II.
R3: 5347.75 ; Tail move I.
R2: 5325.75 ; Improbable
R1: 5301.75; Market gapped up again to fair value which is being sold. Session highs are likely here.
S1: 5278.50; Market is trading slightly above S1. Can break during Europe or New York hours.
S2: 5260.75; Can break.
S3: 5249.75; Can break.
S4: 5201.00; Maybe max daily downside? Volatility forecasts have been failing here.
S5: 5181.50; Can break.
S6: 5146.75; Tail move I.
S7: 5063.00; Tail move II.
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