ESH2025 Weekly and Daily Assumptions
02/23/2025
ESH2025 (SP500 futures March Expiry, Weekly time series):
Down 1.70 Percent or 417 Ticks
Bullish Congestion with a market bottom
While Friday was hit with a lot of news and unexpected volatility, the market is still mean reverting and appears to currently still be a buy. While these signals will start to change into the next week, it appears the market is still in a range and should attempt to retrace a lot of the selling pressure that happened on Friday and offer better prices to enter in short.
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The levels for the week are:
R5: 6149.00; Tail move II.
R4: 6126.50; Tail move I.
R3: 6105.75; Likely getting into weekly max upside.
R2: 6078.50; Can start to add some pressure on the long side but can still head higher.
R1: 6058.25; Market should push up here into Monday’s open.
S1: 6035.25; Market opened slightly higher and is starting to catch a bid, we did hit this level before starting to retrace.
S2: 5983.25; Buy area II. Unlikely.
S3: 5932.25; Buy area III. Also unlikely.
S4: 5894.75; Max downside move. Very unlikely.
S5: 5865.25; Tail move I.
ESH2025 (SP500 Futures March Expiry, Daily time series):
Down 1.68 percent or 413 Ticks.
Bullish Congestion with a market bottom
This time series remains range bound. While Friday there were some tail moves and the market reverted to the mean at 6028.00 it appears the market is already trying to reverse the sell off and continue its range bound behavior. I would anticipate some buying back of Friday’s sell off.
Resistance levels for the day:
R5: 6153.00; Tail upside move II.
R4: 6135.00; Tail upside move I.
R3: 6111.50; Starting to get into max upside, market should close around this price.
R2: 6098.25; Can break.
R1: 6075.50; I would anticipate the New York open to be around R1.
S1: 6035.25; Daily and weekly buy area, market is trading above S1.
S2: 6014.00; Buy area II.
S3: 6000.50; Unlikely.
S4: 5971.50; Tail move I.
S5: 5935.50; Tail move II, very unlikely.
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